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According to a newly released study, researchers are predicting that there is at least a 30 percent chance that states could experience a surge of new infections that could exceed the numbers seen during the spike in cases in mid-September during the variant.
With activities moving indoors, there is expected to be a surge in cases, though with more Americans getting the COVID-19 vaccine and subsequent booster shots, there are expected to be fewer fatalities or long hospitalizations.
Gypsyamber D’Souza, professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said a COVID-19 surge is inevitable this time of year.
“We do expect to see a surge in new cases over the holidays as people get together more and travel more,” she said to NBC News. “The good news is more than two-thirds of Americans have been vaccinated and that means any increase in new cases will lead to less burden of hospitalization and deaths than it did last year.
“It’s completely appropriate for small groups of vaccinated people to get together,” she added. “We know what works. We have the tools. We know that getting vaccinated and wearing masks in enclosed public spaces work. We know that getting together outside, weather permitting, works.”
Last winter, COVID-19 surged to its highest levels, with more than 250,000 people dying between December and February before the second spike due to the Delta variant in the fall.
Officials noted that the impending weather could also contribute to a rise in the number of cases, as respiratory viruses spread more easily in cold, drier air, including COVID-19.
Experts have said that the US can expect to see a rise in cases beginning in late November, leading to another wave, though certain variables can help mitigate the surge, including mask-wearing, and getting the vaccine.
It is estimated that cases may decline this winter compared to last, with a post-holiday bump in mid-February before the numbers start falling off again.
“I feel fairly gloomy about the winter,” Sarah Rowland-Jones, an immunologist at the University of Oxford and an infectious disease physician said to Scientific American. “The rates of COVID have been steadily increasing in the UK since the release of restrictions in July, and we haven’t even started with flu season yet.
“There is lots of research looking at the dynamics of antibody and T cell (immune) responses after vaccination, and those levels are maintained surprisingly well after vaccination, so there isn’t a massive drop-off there.”
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